Carter Pearson: John, long time.
I’m excited to be doing this with you. I’ve respected your basketball opinions since we met, so it’s an honor and a privilege to be discussing them with you in a forum read by 7 of our closest friends (and Kegan and his girlfriend).
For the crowd — JD and I are emailing back and forth on all things basketball related. This will be part column, part running email dialogue. Preliminarily, topics include: breakout playoff guys, Zion, college corruption, Zion, all time teams of all sorts, Zion, coming trends in basketball, Zion, and much more.
J.D. Crabtree: Just did inventory and I only have 6 friends now, Hurst and I might not recover from the NCAA tournament banter. Also you unknowingly signed a “No Zion” clause in the contract so we can’t talk about him, ever. I wish I was sorry.
Alright, hit me.
CP: Given that the playoffs just started and that, even though the Warriors blew a 31-point lead, the outcome is already decided, I think it’s more fun to talk about breakout stars of these playoffs.
Q: Can anyone make a Kawhi in 2014 leap, or just go from “p good” to “v good”? My semi-obvious answer is Pascal Siakam, but I’m curious to hear any other suggestions from you before we dig in. Thoughts?
JD: Great first question. This whole project might work…
What’s interesting is this answer requires predicting how the player’s team will do, because one can’t “breakout” unless they make a semi-deep run against the league’s top teams. So unfortunately when the Nets lose to the 76ers in 5 (a different prediction!) it eliminates the D’Angelo Russells of the world. For this reasoning I’m submitting two players:
Jamal Murray – It’s time. He will have a chance to prove himself on massive stage versus the Trailblazers. Murray/Harris vs. Lilliard/McCollum is must watch backcourt action, and if Murray can deliver he moves into “v good”.
Enes Kanter – Can’t believe I’m attaching myself to this name. But life is about keeping an open mind to change, right? I think Enes is finally in a good spot on a good team. His OKC years were a bit strange, and no one blossoms in New York. While unfortunate, Nurkic’s injury is letting Enes shine as the third option (and first option down low). People also forget he is only 26.
To be clear he will be making less of a leap than Murray and Siakam.
Pascal is too fun to watch, curious what you think he needs to do to get enough respect.
Also, does Khris Middleton count?
CP: Middleton is already too good, and he can only grow so much more while on a team with our Lord and Savior Giannis. So I think he’s out.
On your two guys, I love your commitment to all offense and no defense. That is fantastic and perfect given your playing style.
For Murray — I am not sure he will be around any longer than D’Angelo. And, he’s had 1 good quarter out of 12 on offense, while turning Derrick White into a candidate for this column on the other end. White is averaging over 20 a game (on over 60% from the field), and most of that is because Murray can’t guard anyone.
So, let’s go with Can’t Play Kanter and Pascal. I think both will make the conference finals, so they check the “be around awhile” box, while also being young and, in both cases, derided in the past.
Kanter has gotten really lucky for two reasons.
First, Nurkic is out.
Second, he’s playing against one of the only teams left in the playoffs that can’t exploit his horrific defense. Going again Westbrook or Schroeder on the pick and roll has allowed him to drop back in the lane and bait Westbrook into a 12-foot jumper or pass to Steven Adams for a jump hook. Those are both low-value shots in a modern NBA offense.
Against the Thunder, he can get by on defense simply by being a very large human.
Luckily for Enes, a second round match-up against either the Spurs or Nuggets would offer a bigger test, but not a huge jump. Neither Murray, Gary Harris, or any of the Spurs guards (even if Derrick White continues to be peak Brandon Roy) offer enough of a threat to pull up from 3 or get all the way to the cup.
The issue for Kanter will come in the WCF. Either GSW or Houston will (extremely AND1 mixtape voice) EXPOSE HIM.
If it’s Houston, James Harden will put him in 100 (not an exaggeration) pick and rolls per game. The Westbrook jumpers and Adams floaters will turn into Harden 3s and Capela dunks. Moreyball doesn’t settle in the midrange, and if it does, Harden is the best offensive guard ever while Russ, and this hurts to say, just tries really hard.
If it’s the Warriors, Steph will do the same, but replace Capela dunks with ball movement and Durant / Klay 3s.
So, while Kanter is having a nice round, I don’t think a guy who will revert to Can’t Play status in the WCF can be a breakout guy.
JD: Ya is Derrick White bcc’d on your emails or something? The second I applaud his counterpart he goes UConn Kemba on the Nuggets. I think I’m the only one getting exposed these playoffs.
Well, it looks like it’s you and me Enes, never thought this day would come.
To start he is transforming into Can-Play Kanter, so haters beware! I believe we are seeing a coming-of-age tale right in front of our first round eyes. Broken record here but he never had the chance to play college ball, had to play on Russell Westbrook teams (which is starting to become a red flag), and had to play under James Dolan. Those are below average environments for development and camaraderie. Lillard and McCollum are dogs. They are tired of being bounced early from the playoffs. They are tired of being snubbed in all-star games and elite conversations. They have zero time for egos and selfish play. Enes now has two leaders that are training him to win games, not put up arbitrary stats.
And I understand there is luck. But there is also an aspect that has existed since the beginning of time for the middle tier of professional athletes, and that is when an opportunity presents itself you must capitalize on it. Every year you could be traded to a garbage team (back to New York!) or drafted over. So seize the day or fade into obscurity. I don’t watch Game of Thrones but I assume this happens every time someone dies.
He’s playing whatever defense is recommended and rebounding with no questions asked. That in itself is a leap that can almost be shown on a stat sheet. He has been in two serious playoff scenarios:
Year / TeamPPGRPGAPGBPG2016 Thunder9.46.20.30.62019 Trailblazers13.39.51.50.8
People forget that these players aren’t just robots, except Kyle Korver, and expect them to produce regardless of team makeup and chemistry. Something has kicked in since joining the Trailblazers. He’ll get exposed by Harden and Steph, but if he continues to work hard at not being exposed rather than just being exposed then I think he might have a special playoffs.
Pascal is a sexy pick here. I see you. But I have a few concerns on his ceiling that have less to do with him and more his situation if he is going to make the Kawhi Jump (we should trademark that, sort of like the Mendoza Line). The first issue is that Kawhi is on his team now! Look at the that 2014 Spurs team, their horses (Ginobili, Duncan, Parker) were old and had to have Kawhi be the young gun when fatigue hit. This current Raptors team is one tier younger with Lowry (32), Gasol (34), and Kawhi (27) with one huge catch: the ball is running through Kyle and Kawhi at the end of games. No questions asked. Pascal is not going to have any shining moments like Kawhi was given in ‘14 because, well, Kawhi is now older and better and on the same team.
Q: All this being said it’s a nice pick. But I have to ask, do you think Pascal has a legit shot at Finals MVP?
CP: Short answer: Yes. Side note – this whole conversation is hilarious given that in June 2018 his top comps on 538 were Trevor Booker and Larry Nance’ Jr.
I like defense more than you do, but I don’t think it’s 50:50 in terms of importance with O. More like 66:34. So, even though Pascal is a great defender, he can’t make this leap unless he continues to progress on offense.
His per-36 this year: 19, 8 and 4. 55% from the field, almost 37% from 3. 1.7 stocks. He has the herky-jerky drive game, is great in transition, and cans corner 3s.
He’s a good shooter from the corner and passable from everywhere else. But, he doesn’t have the gravity to affect a team’s rotations. if a possession ends with Pascal making an above the break 24-footer, you live with that outcome as an opposing coach.
If he continues improving his jumper — up from 22% last year to 37% this year — and the Raptors keep letting him run pick and rolls, he can start the Kawhi Leap now and fully evolve next season when Kawhi is a Clipper. Further improvement seems probably given 1) past growth and 2) he began playing basketball 7 years ago (Danny was surprised too).
Kawhi and Kyle missed roughly 40 games this year, so there were nights when it was the Pascal show and his usage was around 20% this year. Not high, but not a straight role player either. The biggest thing that gives away his star turn is his % assisted number. This calculates how many of your buckets were assisted vs. made for yourself. For reference – Kawhi, who is basically Kobe at this point, was assisted on 28% of his 2s and 67% of his threes this year.
Pascal’s %AST numbers this year are very similar to Kawhi between years 2-5, when he went from lockdown defender to best 2-way player in the world:
Year%AST (2s)%AST (3s)Kawhi (years 2-5)54% → 45%99% → 97%Pascal (years 2-3)67% → 49%100% → 97%
I agree the end of game offense is running through Kawhi, but don’t think Kyle “playoffs?” Lowry is a better offensive option than him at this point, even though he’s still a v good PG with an ass for days.
I don’t think Pascal can ever become the isolation guy Kawhi is now, but he can become Spurs 2015-16 Kawhi, and that’s pretty damn good. One problem with my thesis: I think people assume Pascal is a good defender, and he is. But, he’s not peak-Kawhi. I don’t love advanced defensive metrics, but Pascal’s 107 dRTG is 11 points per 100 possessions worse than peak Spurs Kawhi. So, there’s that.
Prediction time: I think the Raptors are making the Finals. After the trademarked Game 1 bed-shitting, the North has come back strong, and I think the combo of Kawhi, Pascal, Lowry, and Gasol matches up well with the Bucks. If any two guys can slow Giannis, it’s Kawhi/Pascal. I think Gasol is better than Lopez, Lowry is better than Bled, and Brogdon is a bigger loss for the Bucks than OG is for Toronto.
If that happens — I think Pascal could win Finals MVP.
How it happens: he guards Durant the whole Series. Kawhi on Klay, Lowry on Curry and Pascal on KD. Then you’re in a scenario where he is 2014 Kawhi, 2015 Iguodala or 2016 Draymond Green. In that series, I think Green would’ve made a strong case for MVP had the Warriors won. He had 30 in Game 7, and then LeBron did LeBron stuff. There also only was a Game 7 because he punched LeBron in the downstairs. So, maybe ignore the Draymond part.
If Pascal goes 17, 8 and 6, defends KD for 50 possessions, and the Raptors win the finals, he would win MVP unless Kawhi averaged over 30. Sounds nuts, but Andre Iguodala won over Steph Curry for the first Warriors title.
Plus, writers vote on that award and writers. Love. Pascal. Huge stretch; and the Warriors are going to kick their ass, but it is in the realm of the possible.
Q: Now that I am out on a limb with the velociRaptors, who are your NBA finalists?
(p.s. Hi Derrick)
JD: Those 2018 Pascal comparisons are horrid. Guess that should be the expected outcome out of a machine titled ‘CARMELO’. I’m on the Pascal train, I just can’t see him winning an MVP with Kawhi on the team. I also can’t see him winning an MVP for another other reason, the Raptors will not be there.
I have officially trusted the process. The Philadelphia 76ers will represent the East in this year’s NBA Finals. May I have the floor?
The top four seeds from the East were always going to advance past the first round, and the conference semifinals and finals were always going to be close battles regardless of matchups. So I’m taking the town that spawned Rocky in a slugfest of series that each will go 6-7 games deep.
The Sixers starting lineup is video-game terrifying, so let’s look at the five again:
- PG – Ben Simmons
- SG – JJ Redick
- SF – Jimmy ‘The Controversy’ Butler
- PF – Tobias Harris
- C – Joel Embiid
All those guys have some aspect of star power, and all those guys are ready to punch you during a game (or slap the floor due to collegiate habits). I love the frontcourt bodies they can bring off the bench with Boban, Mike Scott, and Monroe. Often good playoff series turn into half-court one-possession games as the fourth quarter dwindles down. Butler and Embiid can iso any defender in the world. Tobias is excellent off the catch. Simmons will just do athletic things based on the scenario. And JJ is always waiting for a dagger three pointer.
The winner of the East will come out of the 2-3 semifinals matchup with the Raptors, your pick. Before I rant let’s look at the top eight players by minutes played coupled with starter matchups:
- Ben Simmons vs Kyle Lowry
- JJ Redick vs Danny Green
- Jimmy Butler vs Kawhi Leonard
- Tobias Harris vs Pascal Siakam
- Joel Embiid vs Serge Ibaka
PHI: Mike Scott, James Ennis, Boban Marjanovic
TOR: Marc Gasol, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell
At first glance I’m in love with the Butler/Leonard/Tobias/Pascal/Scott/Green battles of length that you and I never sniffed in our careers. Then I notice Embiid and Simmons will have some size advantages.
I’ll pause for a moment on my East selection and let you jump in on the Raptors and/or West.
My West pick is the Warriors. Durant is the best player in basketball at the moment and they will not lose.
CP: I am almost picking the Raps by default. Here’s my brief reasoning.
Celts: Young guys aren’t ready, Kyrie will do a headcase-y thing, and Giannis will beat them.
Sixers: *whispers* I’m not sure Ben Simmons is a helpful player on a team with Embiid. I think the redundancy will kill them in the playoffs, and that Kawhi/Danny/Pascal match up with them really nicely on the wings and that Embiid misses 2 games with a knee thingy.
Bucks: Feels like Giannis should make it, so I am probably wrong. I’m mostly making my case for #narrative reasons.
Stay with me: It feels too preordained that Giannis is the new face of the league. I’m getting 2010 Thunder vibes from him, and that did not end so well. Also, he can’t shoot yet and it feels like the NBA gods are going to punish him for that at some point.
So, I think they lose in the ECF and then in October we get a Sports Illustrated profile that begins with Giannis finishing off his 500th made 3 pointer of the day in an empty gym at 11:45 at night, after which he drives home to his apartment, drinks his 12th smoothie of the day and then watches video of his shooting motion via VR goggles over his eyelids while he sleeps.
So, I go with the Raps. Interested to hear a bit more on why you think the Sixers are ready.
In the West, I was close to picking the Rockets, but betweens Harden’s last two games and Klay’s swim in the pacific, I’m back in on the Dubs. I think only the Warriors can beat the Warriors and it should end with Durant leaving after 3 straight titles.
Q: To wrap up this first back and forth, I wanted to get your thoughts on some high school yearbook style “Most Likely Tos”…
1. Get a text from LeBron?
2. Have a mid-game headband change?
3. Get in an actual fight? 2 players who could play before the finals pls
4. Get fully yanked from a rotation after playing all year?
What say you?
JD: O my, love those superlatives. But to finish my remaining Sixers thoughts I’ll preface them by saying this will not be a data-based approach. Hope that infuriates someone out there. To start apparently Marc Gasol is wildly efficient guarding Joel Embiid. The rumor is Gasol has defended Embiid for 178 possessions during the past two seasons while he was a Grizzly, holding him to 29 points on 10-of-29 shooting (0 for 9 from 3) and forcing nine turnovers. I believe Embiid is about to flip the script on that matchup and have Gasol and Co. riding pine early and often with fouls and frustration. This is eerily similar to the Shaq vs Divac days, and not because Gasol looks like he’s a relative of Divac, but because we have a top 5ish NBA player playing his back to the basket versus a defensive specialist. I think Gasol has lost a step and takes the bait on Embiid’s arsenal of pump fakes.
My other prediction is that all these rangy small forwards will neutralize each other when it’s all said and done. There is a chance that Butler has an A- series and Kawhi has a C+ series, and in my book that’s a wash. So the X factor will be Embiid and Simmons dominating scenarios when they have a vast athletic gap between them and the defender (e.g. VanFleet finding himself on Simmons too deep in the post).
Superlatives. Let’s do ‘em.
Get a text from LeBron? Jimmy Butler
Have a mid-game headband change? Jimmy Butler
Get in an actual fight? 2 players who could play before the finals pls. Jimmy Butler vs. Brett Brown
Get fully yanked from a rotation after playing all year? Jimmy Butler after tweeting he is joining the Lakers while mid-series against the Bucks.
Jimmy is a bundle of fun.
Q: Alright Cooks, I’ve got some superlatives for you. And why don’t you close us out this electric opening edition. Most Likely To…
1. Earn a double technical with Draymond Green?
2. Take a shot at their head coach and/or front office on social media after a series loss? Also please select the platform in a game of Clue accusation.
3. Hit a game winner coming off the bench?
4. Dance like nobody’s watching?
CP: Love it. Jimmy really is the most interesting (and annoying) man in the world. I can’t decide what is worse – LeBron subtweets, Kyrie interviews, or Jimmy Butler conversations. A conversation for another day I suppose.
Superlatives
Earn a double technical with Draymond Green? Kevin Durant.
Take a shot at their head coach and/or front office on social media after a series loss? Also please select the platform in a game of Clue accusation.Ben Simmons, on the Instagram, with a supermodel.
Hit a game winner coming off the bench?Danuel House, vs. the Warriors, from the corner. Alt. answer – a post-injury Malcolm Brogdon, from the corner, vs. the C’s.
Dance like nobody’s watching? Joker. That thin Denver air is good to him.
This was fun. To our 6 friends, thanks for reading. Back next week(ish).
...
