#30: Kansas > Italy

JD Crabtree: Carter, I am going to give you no context or direction for this edition by starting with this question.

You are a 5 star recruit who is entering his senior year of high school, and your talents are wanted by all. In your DMs are agents, brands, baddies, you name it. One day you look up from the dribbling the ball and find these paths laid before you:

1 - The G League  

2 - Play for a Blue Blood (UNC, Kansas, Duke, UConn, UCLA) for $200k

3 - Overtime Elite

4 - Transfer to IMG Academy and play on the postgrad team

5 - A one year contract with a team in Italy or China

6 - Play for a non-traditional high major willing to overpay via NIL for 400k (Oregon, Miami,

You have one season to make the most of your game, your draft stock, and the experiences you want as an 18 year old in our capitalistic society.

It is signing day and you have to pick one by midnight, where are you heading? Why?

Carter Pearson: Okay. Immediately, I think you have to go to a blue blood program that is willing to play fast. The difference between 200k and 400k isn’t enough for me to sacrifice the non-collective based NIL earnings and overall experience you get playing for a blue blood program.

Given the above, I choose Kansas. I know, choosing to live in Lawrence over Los Angeles is a strange choice. But, it’s the correct one.

Experience

If I’m truly a 5-star prospect, I will soon be making my way to a big city where I can live out the full experience of being a young, rich person who can afford to order whatever they want on Uber Eats and go to clubs and whatever.

I want something different before the true “career” of being a professional basketball player starts. I want something classic and timeless and wholesome. I want to go to parties and have everyone there be completely thrilled by my presence in an earnest and wholesome way.

Lawrence is a true blue, red blooded, midwestern college town. Did you ever hear KD talk about how he was so happy in Oklahoma City? It’s like that, but for college.

Duke was high on my list. I didn’t choose this option because you said I couldn’t. Also, I don’t want every person I interact with to be thinking about how they can use our relationship to further their start up or future private equity plans.

Playing Style

UCLA seemed like the obvious choice when you sent this to me. LA. Beautiful people. Great weather. Amazing uniforms. NIL opportunities in the entertainment industry. It seems like a no brained, right? Wrong.

Look at the recently successful NBA players from the Bruins. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love. Both super high draft picks. Why wouldn’t I go there?

Well, those guys were picked high despite their numbers in college, not because of them. They play so, so slowly. If I’m going somewhere, we need the motto of the Tennessee football team: “play fast, have fun”. I want to win games 85-72, not 66-58. I want to run lots of high pick and roll and shoot 3s off movement.

I’m editorializing a bit based on the situation you outlined, but assuming I’m an amazing athlete with questions about my jumped. I need opportunities to stretch myself within the flow of the offense over and over again.

Further NIL

This is where Kansas is an even bigger sleeper. KU basketball is the biggest show in the state (non-Chiefs division). I’m going to be in local car commercials and get a free car (new Bronco?). I’m going to have a sandwich named after me at the best restaurant in town. Any small business in the area is going to want me and my teammates in advertising for them, doing meet and greets, and really participating in the life of the college town.

I’ll make up the difference in “salary” with these small pieces, while also getting to be a semi-normal human being who just happens to be tall and able to windmill.

I can also probably make friends with a student manager who I think is smart and can handle this for me. Maybe his Dad played at the same school and now owns a successful law practice. I bet he has friends who’d want to pay me pretty sizable amounts of money just to hang out.

Okay, that’s my choice. Tell me why I’m wrong. What would you go with?

JD: Well, that was a damn good answer Cooks. I have trouble disagreeing with any of that, and I'll play devil's advocate soon, but let me double down on Kansas for a hot second.

If we are truly talking about next year's college class then yes it is Kansas 1A. Duke and UConn are 1Bs. Then a mix of Kentucky, UNC, and UCLA in the second blue blood tier. Self had a recent health scare, yes, but he now sits alone in the college basketball throne. He knows the NCAA game, he has unlimited resources and blue blood history, has figured out 5 stars and upperclassmen meshes, and is a damn good coach to top it all off. UNC and UK are going to go through a coaching mess in the next couple of years. You covered UCLA above. And Duke and UConn are extremely stable with their coaches and competitive on all fronts, but get knocked down a peg because of Self's seniority. So yes, Kansas is our choice in 2023.

Alright, now to the alternatives. I have two routes.

Non-Traditional High Major

Brandon Miller completed a gun show of a season where he did whatever he wanted to opponents. Nate Oats gave him the green light to point and shoot wherever he was on the court. Alabama has a middling basketball history, and the arena was packed every night to catch their glimpse of the sharpshooter's six months on campus. Jabari Smith had the same experience at Auburn the year prior. Cade Cunningham the year prior to that. The point I am making is that these guys chose campuses where they had all the power in the world, the biggest man on campus.

The gap has narrowed on how an elite player can get to the NBA and market himself along the way. If the next Brandon Miller heads to Iowa State or Boston College, we are all going to tune in and all the scouts will be just as aware. He's in charge, and he will be a top 3 pick.

G League

I'm finding the G League route more and more interesting each year, and you know I'm a college basketball loyalist. The one achilles heel I see sometimes with big bad college programs is their man in charge. The double-edged sword of having a hall of fame type coach is you have a hall of fame type ego. You might get a burger named after you, but it'll be at the restaurant dawning the coach's name. These are the guys that walk on water these college towns and decide decade-long trajectories of these money-making brands. They also can decide at any point in the season that you might not be tough enough, aren't trying hard enough, need to come off the bench, or any other coach-speak to try to motivate you or others on the team. And then there's the scenario where you two just don't get along after the recruiting honeymoon phase.

Now a lot of that is probably good for the kid and his development and blah blah blah, but the power has shifted since we were in high school. And the player we are talking about is staying on campus three semesters max. So now a kid and his family can cut the bullshit.

Scoot Henderson took care of business. He showed a seamless route of how a can't miss prospect couldn't be missed with a fraction of the TV exposure blue blood basketball receives.

The G League doesn't have any side quests for the 5 stars that head that direction. No strange NIL negotiations. No complex relationship with an older coach who's the highest paid employee in his state. No school. List goes on. The G League has one goal, and it's to get the Scoot Hendersons name called in the first round each year. It is what Coach Cal wants Kentucky to be. But I bet you and I couldn't even name a G League coach, because they are all glorified NBA developer/trainer types. I have no data or research to back this up but I bet the G League and its players don't care too much about their records, instead focusing on NBA-relevant pieces of the game and incremental improvements.

So there ya go, my attempt to non-blue blood it.

Quick question: do you see the international route picking up any steam?

CP:

Agree with most of this, but I can’t get down with the G-League. I need to watch the Scoot documentary, but the idea of making 500k to play in front of literally no one when you could make 200k to play 30 games in Phog Allen is silly to me. Go have fun! And on the coach thing: just go play for someone cool.

The international route requires a certain type of guy. It also just seems kind of difficult. Like, if you’re a sorta weirdo skinny prospect who also loves travel, then sure. But I don’t think there’s a ton of overlap between “future travel bloggers” and “future NBA players”. If my goal is to get to the league as quickly as I can, I have better options. Also, one I get paid, I can go to Australia or Spain and not work.

Any closing thoughts?

JD: Closing thoughts is that the path to the NBA is getting a lot less wanderlusty and Happy Days and more of a business. Guys are even load managing at elite college programs before that summer's draft.And part of me doesn't blame them, their circle should advise for the most secure high-potential earning route with their .01% skillset. It is why I think the G League and other super academy options will keep eating into the college pie that had a stranglehold on NBA entrances.

The basketball is in the states, but international is rising, some. I will agree there is still little reason to head overseas as a lottery pick when you eventually need to fly back to sit in the green room to then play for a non-playoff Wizards squad throughout your rookie contract.