Carter Pearson: Hey John,
So, you came back to New York right after I left. I’m trying not to be offended by this, but it does rankle.
I’m interested in the state of the Star in the NBA. Mainly — I’m interested in the fact that there seem to be so many stars now.
I know LeBron is an absolute alien, but it’s very strange that the undisputed best player in the world is in his 18th year.
And he isn’t the only one — guys are peaking for longer than ever and will continue to do so given cryogenic chambers, CBD oil and the fact that everyone is going vegan. The West Finals could legit be LeBron vs. CP3. That would’ve been a headline matchup in 2008.
I love the fact that there were 40 guys with a legit All Star case this year. (some of that is due to the 3-point boom, being a 20-point scorer doesn’t mean what it used to.) But, it puts us in a situation a little like the recent logjams on Everest. You’ve got guys who worked their whole lives (or paid a shit load of money) to climb the mountain, and then when they get to the top, there’s a huge line.
Ja Morant is an undisputed Star who might not make an All Star team for 4 years. Right now, he has Curry/Lillard/Doncic/Paul/Booker/Mitchell/Murray ahead of him and SGA/Fox even. And that’s even with James Harden getting traded out of conference and Klay coming back next year. That’s wild. Its slightly analogous to Mike Conley, who just made the team. But Ja (and all those other guys I listed) are capital-S Stars, and Mike Conley is a great game manager who had a good career. There’s a lot of fringe guys who made one ASG in the past. That’s normal. I’m not sure we’ve seen a situation someone is a legit best-player-on-a-50 win team for multiple seasons and not make the game. That could be the situation we are in with some of these young guys, depending on how long the older generation of superstars maintains this level.
What do you think about this? How does this affect how we see players in the arc of history if it’s really difficult for them to receive accolades while playing because they play in a golden age of talent.
J.D. Crabtree: I’m taking another bite out of the Big Apple. No bark, all bite.
Yes, stars, a whole sky full of them. This is an adverse effect to specializing everyone else in the league to create the perfect team model. You have your 1-3 stars depending on drafting and cap space, and then the remaining players are cogs. Three and D. Stretch 4. Rim runner. Rim protector. Catch and shoot specialist. TJ McConnell.
This approach allows for a star to bubble up easier, but that means 29 other teams are doing the same with their max guys. And I don’t see this reeling back.
Fans want stars on their team. Front offices want stars on their team because fans spend more. Even coaches want stars on their team because it is becoming impossible to advance past superteams late in the playoffs. So while the mountain is more crowded and it’s not just Bird vs. Magic, at least they can be semi-kings of their own hill (e.g. Fox in Sacramento). That’s fun, right?
As for longevity of stardom we are going to have to figure this one out in real-time. Expanding the rosters is one idea, but exclusivity takes a hit. It comes down to when we want to move on from a Chris Paul and pass the torch to a Morant, and it might simply mean that players are going to have to wait in line much longer than when Chris Paul entered the league.
This problem will not be solved once Lebron and Durant leave the league either, there is some wild talent coming from all angles (college, G League, overseas). Unfortunately for the Cade Cunninghams of the world he might have to wait till they are 25 before they get to play zero defense and catch lobs for thirty minutes with other stars.
Devil’s advocate, is social media, fan access, and more viral exposure causing us to prop up more guys than the past?
Also are we going to have to redefine what a star is in the league?
CP: I think your last point hits it on the head. We have to redefine what a star is. In the past, a star was a guy who made the max, could get you 23 a night, and did some cool dunks. Maybe your team made the playoffs, maybe you didn’t. He was definitely starring in a local car commercial.
Now, literally every team in the league has a “star”, as you say. One of my favorite stats in basketball is VORP. Also known as WAR in baseball. It basically means: How good are you relative to an average pro?
I think someone much smarter than us needs to come up with VORS. You can figure out what the S stand for, I think.
But, who is our replacement star?
JD: The NBA released some nice charts in PDF form for us to wrap our head around star power.
Without doing any serious statistical breakdown, here are my gut reactions on guys that received a fair amount of votes that shouldn’t be in this all-star/face of NBA conversation:
– Victor Oladipo = a good basketball player, that’s all
– Tobias Harris = a good basketball player, that’s all
– Fred VanVleet = a rising good basketball player, that’s all
– Christian Wood = a rising unproven player
– Jaylen Brown = my hottest take, really he’s just an above average scorer!
This is nothing against these talented professionals, and more against society’s current infatuation with pumping so many people up (OK Boomer!).
Zach LaVine and Brandon Ingram are sitting closest to the replacement line for me, and I’m not sure why there’s this universal pressure to push them over until there is room.
Would it be crazy and useless to have more metrics specific to our stars?
CP: Love your list and, based on play this season, I don’t think I can quibble with your take that those guys aren’t stars.
The last two guys you mentioned, LaVine and Ingram, are interesting and I think both fall short because they’re sieves on defense. Here, I’d like to point out that Brandon Ingram showed in LA that he can be a good NBA defender. In NO, he’s been garbage, and he’s honestly one of the worst defenders in the league. I think old-school Princeton would get 150 on the Pels with back cuts alone. Ingram and Bledsoe have been so, so bad on defense. On offense – Ingram (and Jaylen Brown to your point) top out as “good scoring wings”. You could call them DeRozans, but that seems pretty harsh. I’m not sure this makes sense, but Ingram and Brown seem like they can easily get 20 but rarely get 30. LaVine can go for 30 in a half, so he’s closer to the capital S.
I’d love for BI to pull it together because a title-contending team headline by Duke (kinda) players is my dream. But I’m very close to titling Mid-Range #24 “Free Zion”.
Back to stats real quick: I’m not sure more stats help the conversation. But, I think looking at VORP can help. Looking at the last complete, non-COVID NBA season (stats here), 5 VORP seems to be the STARdoza Line. Straddling that line are 55 games of LeBron with 4.9, Rudy Gobert with 4.8 and KAT (when he was winning every single “one guy to start a team with” conversation) at 5.1.
I have two caveats here. First, this is cumulative VORP, so it excludes some people, like Kawhi and LeBron, who were hurt that season. A related caveat is the inclusion of Nikola Vucevic. He finished with 5.5 WAR in 2018. That dude is damn good, but I don’t think many people would argue he’s the seventh best player in the league. Nevertheless, if your 2018 Top 10 are: Harden, Giannis, Jokic, OKC PG13, Lillard, Anthony Davis, Vooch, Steph, Durant, and Kyrie, you’re doing something right.
You need a mix of eye-test, stats and context to define a Star. We know Jimmy Butler is a Star because he took the Lakers to 6 in the Finals. We know Kyrie is a Star because he made, arguably, the biggest shot in NBA history and other Stars want to be on his team. We know Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are not Stars because LeBron and KD had no qualms in shitting on them on national TV even though their team will be the one seed. We know PG is no longer a Star because the Blazers own him on Twitter.
Stardom can be earned, but it can also be taken back.
Who do you see earning their card this season? Anyone? What about losing it
JD: All good stuff above, especially the mixology of stardom you laid out there.
Only qualm is that Paul George took that VORP to the moon, so does that statistical bias keep him among the stars…
Earning their card, let’s see. I think one guy who has zero star sex appeal is Nikola Vučević, but has all the stats, VORP, and actual all-star appearances to deserve a seat at the table. He’s also 30, so in a roundabout way has put in his time as opposed to a Christian Wood or a Mikal Bridges or something. But no one talks about him (except KD) and I haven’t seen one Vučević jersey at a Tompkins Square Park run.
Is he already a star? Are you a star once you make an all-star? Who the f*** is a star Cooks?! This is trending to an Illuminati operation of stardom.
A risky rising star to invest in, maybe not this second but by end of season, is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That man is starting to cook! He could start jumping people if he goes on a tear to end the season. Basically Murray for Denver needs to be aware of his stock.
Now onto losing a star card.
I think you were joking about the two Jazz guys, but they need to watch out for not getting in all-star games and plateauing into boring players. But let’s say they are not stars. A real star that is losing his star card is Westbrook. You know how I feel about him. At some point we all need to have a tough conversation with ourselves and realize his impact today on teams.
Close us out sir. 2021 star forecasts?
CP: I agree with your Vooch pick. He and LaVine are going to be so good on offense, and I think the Bulls get up to sixth in the East and scare someone in the first round. I’m interested to see those guys running DHOs and a lot of stuff with Vooch at the elbow. He’s got a whiff of poor mans Jokic to him, and I think LaVine, is actually more skilled than Murray. Whether he’s better is pending playoff performance.
Not sure if “sixth in the East” is worth two picks and Wendell Carter, but I like seeing teams try to win.
For my own Star Achiever — let’s go with Ja Morant. He still can’t shoot, and people who say they’d take him over Zion (already a STAR, not even a conversation) are silly. But, that dude is a winner. If one guy in this generation is going to be Chris Paul (point god) or Dame Lillard (stays with one team forever, even without winning), I think its Ja.
Losing their card — I sadly have to agree with Russ as well. You know the love I have for Brody, but he is currently in the spin cycle, edging ever closer to washed.
Did we just talk around a lot of the best players in the league while ultimately anointing some people stars that I originally said were not? Perhaps.
Did we have fun doing it? Definitely.
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