J.D. Crabtree: Well, Kawhi got the last laugh.
The NBA playoffs just threw a lot of stimulation at we the people, and that’s even with the Bucks-Celtics series laying a green egg. Our Philly-Raptors debate turned into being worth the effort since the series came down to a moment Drake will never forget. I was very impressed with those two teams, think we would all like to have seen a best of 15 instead of 7. Congrats on the winning pick, cooks.
As promised we would like to welcome you all to a dedicated NBA Conference Finals edition of The Mid Range. So let’s do this.
We have four teams remaining in two battles where each has a lopsided tilt to a team having deep postseason experience:
1) Golden State Warriors vs. 3) Portland Trail Blazers
1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. 2) Toronto Raptors
Q: With all the chaos surrounding Durant’s injury, Portland’s hero ball, Kawhi’s greatness, Steph’s resurgence, and the respectable efforts by the Rockets, 76ers, and Nuggets, we have had no time to think about the Milwaukee Bucks this past week. In their matchup with the Raptors, your East favorite, have they increased their title chances with their semi-final play?
Carter Pearson: John, that was fun. I’m not sure how that shot went in, but it did. The scenes in Jurassic Park were incredible, and reminded me of the scenes during the World Cup in 2010, when the US advanced against Ghana and that old guy from Sewanee cried on TV.
Before moving on, I do have to take a moment to praise the Sixers. They have a lot to figure out, but I think Brett Brown did a good job. If they can, they should sign everyone, run it back, and remember Ben Simmons is 22 years old. Look back at Siakam, Kawhi, PG13, etc after year 2 and take a breath. As long as Embiid is healthy, you’ll be a contender. And, you’ll be over the cap if you max out Butler, so you may as well bring back Harris too and then try to trade him if the fit doesn’t continue to improve.
Onto the Deer — they are really scary. If Brogdon is fully healthy, the Raptors are in trouble. The end of the Philly series showed the limits of the surrounding guys for the Raps. Kawhi is incredible, but if he takes over 30 shots, and the Raptors score 92 points, that’s a 15-20 point loss against the Bucks.
My biggest issue for the Raptors is balance. In the regular season, Middleton guarded Kawhi and Giannis checked Pascal. Maybe Coach Bud is tempted to swap and put Giannis on Kawhi for a Thundercats-level matchup, but I think he sticks with the matchups. Here’s why:
Kawhi will get his, and Middleton can make him work. Maybe he gets 5 more points per game with Khris on him, but you live with that.
Giannis can turn Pascal into a complete zero in this series. If that happens, there’s immense pressure on Gasol, Green, Chewy, or Lowry to score. Maybe this happens — Ibaka has 17 in Game 7, including a Durant rise and fire 3 — but I don’t see any of those guys popping enough over a whole series to be a consistent second guy.
Lowry and Gasol don’t want to shoot that much, Green can’t get his own shot, and the Bucks do not give up corner 3s. That leaves you relying a lot on Serge Ibaka corner 3s against a team that gave up the least corner 3s in the league this year.
Also, if Kawhi roasts Khris, you have Giannis as a break in case of emergency defensive option. If you’re the favorite, as the Bucks are, I think you make the underdog adjust to you.
What do you think of the Bucks/Raps? Anything stand out to you from either team?
JD: I was highish on the Raptors when the playoffs started. But now I have growing concerns because they have both allowed me to analyze more intense games, and because they have racked up more intense games.
I am predicting that they hit somewhat of a peak in that 76ers series. As a top seed you NEVER want to have the early rounds go the distance, ever, for any reason. If you take the past two dominant regimes neither the Warriors or the Heat saw a series go 7 in the first two rounds during the championship runs. We all understand human bodies here. Less games mean less fatigue and more recovery time. And the Raptors had to play literally to the last possible second in the conference semifinals against a physical 76ers squad. The Bucks last played on May 8th (in Milwaukee), giving them a full week until their next game (in Milwaukee). So they will be fully rested and have had too many days to break down Raptors film. The Bucks could gamble and play Giannis every minute of the first four games and take a commanding lead. There are probably statistics out there, but this turnaround can’t bode well for the North.
Switching to oncourt performance, you hit on most of the major concerns I have today. In order to win again Kawhi is going to have to be the hero for 7 more games, Milwaukee will not be knocked out before then. At some point Kawhi will hit a 1.5-2 game slump since we can’t expect any man to play 14 straight games of All-NBA basketball, and that’s when the Deer will run even faster.
With Brogdon, an above-average defender, slowly returning it makes the remaining Raptors life that more difficult. The Bucks defense should try to smother the other four players on the floor. If they execute the lockdown, we could see outcomes with Kawhi being the only player scoring 15+ points in a game. Ya, we’re talking ugly box scores like this.
Now flipping to their defensive woes for this matchup. In three regular season meetings with Toronto, Giannis averaged 27 points, 15.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.0 blocks and 1.7 steals, while shooting 58.5 percent from the field. Stakes are higher so we should expect even higher numbers than that. If the Raptors are being honest with themselves Kawhi should be the only person checking Giannis all series. But they can’t expect him to carry the offense and stop a MVP on the other end of the floor. So with this fork in the Canadian road they will choose offense, thus Giannis humiliates the second-best option.
Everyone on the Bucks can rain 3s, even Splash Mountain, so I don’t trust a Gasol lineup when Giannis is the pseudo center. I also don’t trust many lineups when the Bucks roll that out. The inability to sag and double Giannis once he gets within 15 feet is a death sentence, but it might be the lesser of two evils instead of having Bledsoe and Co. knock down open treys.
Kyle Lowry needs to look in the mirror for no less than three hours before Game 1. He is not a fine wine, he is slowly turning into molasses. Toronto needs him to turn back the clock and play 20-10 ball in what is his most likely shot at a title (as a starter). In a risky take I am claiming him to be the maple syrup that causes the Raptors to stick around for another series.
Q: Quickly before we jump to the West, who’s your most important bench guy for each team?
CP: For the Bucks — can I say Brogdon since he might not start? If not, it’s Mirotic. Like we talked about last week, he’s a Make Miss Tier guy. If he goes 4-7 from three, you win a game maybe you should have lost. If he goes 0-5, maybe you lose a game you should have won.
For the Raps, it’s gotta be Chewy. Maybe he gets hot and you can play some small lineups and try to run Lopez off the floor? But then Giannis is at center and you are in trouble. Perhaps this is a bad take and is a further explanation why the Raps are in trouble.
What do you think?
JD: Bucks: George Hill
If he neutralizes Kyle Lowry while both are on the floor the Bucks are yielding all types of mini-wins. He’s got a weird amount of length that could be the difference between Lowry taking a decent shot or instead deciding to pass it off.
Raptors: Also Chewy
He’s the only Raptor off the bench that can impact a Bucks run. So Chewy, be useful and impact a Bucks run.
Q: It appears it’s time to talk about the conference the Warriors are in, Los West. We have a Portland Trail Blazers team that finally has their rare shot at greatness, and the best team in the world. With Durant sitting Game 1, does Portland have to win the first matchup to pull off the miracle?
CP: Nah. Warriors are too long and too fast. This is analogous to Raps-Bucks, but worse. This series requires so much from CJ and Dame, and I just don’t think they have it in them.
Against any other team, they have the backcourt advantage. Here… they do not. If we are seriously pondering Rodney Hood’s health, I think that says all you need to know about this series.
To entertain this: the only way this is close is if Iguodala is cooked from the Rockets series (likelihood 4/10), Durant doesn’t come back 0/10 if Portland makes this close, 10/10 if Warriors sweep), and Draymond reverts to bad regular season Draymond, rather than the destroyer of souls that he has been during the playoffs (1/10). Also, maybe Curry breaks his finger and keeps missing layups (1/10).
That’s a lot of things that need to happen. Also Portland has to kill them on the glass and Lillard has to cook. I just don’t see that as feasible. And, (disclaimer, I’m writing this after Game 1) Zach Collins has to play 35 minutes a game and be good because they are going to have to change the pick and roll coverage against Curry and Kanter’s minutes are going to evaporate.
Am I missing something glaring in this series, John? Because barring anything drastic, I see a lot of mildly entertaining games where Quinn Cook and Seth Curry get to pretend it’s 2012 again for the final 4 minutes.
JD: Start organizing your date nights and SoulCycle classes on nights with this matchup, nothing to see here people. Durant, the best player in basketball, is coming back and if your rebuttal is to have Al-Farouq Aminu shadow him then your series is over.
I’m not going to bore our readers since you covered all the scenarios. We are looking at a sweep.
Q: Let’s wrap this up. Conference Finals predictions?
CP: My picks:
Raps in 7 — even though I don’t believe this, I picked them earlier and must stick with it. Give me Kawhi going for 38 a game while checking Giannis and Pascal somehow pump faking and spinning his way to 20-9-5 with good defense.
Warriors in 5 — I know this is the most boring pick, but whatever. We are not here for spicy takes. I would pick a sweep if Durant were healthy and expect a lot of 117-107 games. Here’s a semi-spicy one. Portland gets Game 2 at Oracle and then loses in 5.
JD: My picks:
Bucks in 5 — 76ers are out so I get to start fresh! In retaliation I am picking the Bucks to dominate for all the aforementioned reasons. Giannis elevates himself into all-time conversations after averaging 35-10-10 throughout the series.
Warriors in 4 — You know what’s not boring, but actually is because of recent years, is a Warriors sweep. The disparity between the Warriors and the rest of the West became evident this playoffs. Until Durant or Klay leave this franchise the talent gap is too wide. Our only hope is Dame Lilliard to go Davidson Steph Curry on Steph Curry.
Did I just have two spicy takes?
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