J.D. Crabtree: On Thursday night, the Toronto Raptors beat the Golden State Warriors in a 4-2 series for the franchise’s first championship.
I have a lot to say. It’s a bit of everything. I have tributes. I have theories. I have instant analysis. I have jokes. I also have a mix of sadness and happiness based on the result of this year’s NBA Finals. I plan on unpacking this wide range of emotions and info throughout this edition.
We have also reached the end of basketball season. While that is also sad, the past year has given us many good things. And we are going to have mini-thrills all throughout the offseason. I’m bullish on the sport moving forward.
Let’s start talking about one of the more peculiar championships we’ve seen in the 21st century. The winners/Fun Guys/not Drake deserve to be discussed first. I hope they are honored.
Did the Raptors just shock the world? Or were they one of the heavy favorites all along and we should have expected this title?
Carter Pearson: Cop out answer alert (or nuanced if you’re feeling generous): both.
The Raptors were not the heavy favorite and no one should have expected a title against the Warriors.
But, they were the clear favorite against a team with no KD (except for 12 minutes) and no Klay for 1.5 games.
That being said — I will die believing that they win Game 6 and Game 7 if Klay’s ACL doesn’t pop. And Klay would have been your hypothetical MVP as he was shooting 754% from 3 (all stats approximate). Steph can’t even win my hypothetical Finals MVP. That’s tough.
Sorry, sorry, you said we have to talk about the Raptors first. Whatever.
They are quite good and deserving champions. Every team that wins is a deserving champion because weird shit happens every year. You can never take that ring off Kyle Lowry’s hand, and even if Kawhi leaves, it makes the trade for him maybe the best trade ever (besides the Celtics getting Parrish and McHale in the same trade). Jakob Poetl was the second best asset the Spurs got for Kawhi. That only makes sense if the best asset you got was LeBron. Which, DeMar is not.
They also turned Jonas Valunciunas and Delon Wright into Marc Gasol, which probably tipped the series in their favor. Stay with me here…Valunciunas can’t play against GSW (and probably not against Milwaukee while we are at it). That’s the easy one.
But, Delon Wright is lanky and a good playmaker and defender, who probably takes minutes from FVV, who then does not turn into Papa VanVleet, playoff god. This is a big hypothetical (duh) and maybe not 100% correct, but I think Nick Nurse probably has a quicker hook on the version of VanVleet that couldn’t shoot against Milwaukee if he has Wright on the bench.
All that said, Masai Ujiri did an incredible job (again, duh). Specifically, he turned the Raps into an almost perfectly constructed modern team. Obviously, they are not a perfect team, but all of their 7.5 (Powell is .5) rotation guys can make a play for himself or someone else. I define “make a play” as basically pump-fake and drive and dish or finish after 2 or more dribbles. Every guy who gets minutes for the Raptors can “make a play” under that definition.
Also, they can all score from three levels (3s, the Mid Range™, and the rim), with a solid mix of guys who are super efficient in each spot.
- Kawhi – everywhere, especially The Mid Range™
- Lowry – 3s and The Mid Range™
- Gasol – everywhere
- FVV tha God – 3s
- Chewy – this is where my evidence starts to falter, but you at least have to guard him
- Pascal – the rim and the corner. Also, I legit forgot about him and had to look up the 8th rotation Raptor. He was not so great after Game 1.
- Sidebar: *extreme podcast host voice* Let’s put a pin in this, because I think his Game 6 illustrated a lot of what we discussed re: tiers of guys in a previous post.
- Danny Green – 3s, most of the time, but you know within the first 2 shots whether it is his day or you can send him back to the locker room
- Powell – ditto
They were going against this:
- Steph – everywhere
- Klay – everywhere, except dunks because those hurt him.
- Iggy – N/A, except the 1 game every series where he makes 3s
- Livingston – N/A, he is super duper cooked
- Green – the rim kinda
- Bogut – 4chan and Alt Right Reddit
- Boogie – the rim, but well below it
- Cook – 3s, kinda. And that pains me to say because Duke won the 2015 title because of him and he started the “Duke Starting 5” hair cut trend.
That’s not so good, and it took two Greek tragedies (Klay is Icarus, KD is ummm… Achilles. Too soon?) for the Raptors to win. The Raptors deserved to win against the players they played against. But a healthy Warriors team is still the best team in the league. Too bad we won’t see that for a full year; if we ever get to see it again.
I want your answer to the same questions – fluky title or favorites all along? Also, did the Finals make you think the NBA is more or less of a “make/miss league”?
JD: I believe if we all sat down at the beginning of the season and analyzed every aspect of the roster, schedule, and individual trajectories no one would have called them a “favorite” to win it all.
But I do think if we were given the option to reshuffle opinions when they made the Gasol move (February 7th) they entered into the title equation. I truly thought that the Warriors, Raptors, post-Tobias Sixers, and the Bucks (barely) were the only ones with the big enough guns. By then Pascal was shining, the Kawhi impact we all forgot about was more than real, and Gasol gave them that veteran push. So my answer is that on February 8th they entered the favorite equation.
Throughout all of this pre-championship Raptors analysis there was one constant lurking in the background: Masai Ujiri.
It is clear he is one of the greatest basketball minds/chessmasters on the planet right now.
Even Obama is courting him out of The North. So maybe us predictors should have always put them in the title equation, sort of like if your team has Durant, assuming he was going to make the correct moves to get them there. Mr. Ujiri has made himself as a coveted as Kawhi this offseason.
Unfortunately the title will always be remembered as the year Durant and Klay were hurt. But I’m going to block that out when I think about the Raptors, they were up against an all-time super team even without Durant. And to be fair they won 3 ½ games versus a healthy, earth-scorching Klay.
OK, so, I’m officially going to label their championship as not fluky. Boom.
As you said, this team was well-constructed on paper and had absurd chemistry for the core all playing together for one year. I know these are adults who have collectively played with hundreds of lineup combinations, but this had shades of vintage Spurs fellowship. There was zero ego and only a unified drive to win a title in one year. Their identity was made up of the following concoction, using math:
- Kawhi’s personality and demeanor = 40% (your star sets the tone)
- Ujiri oversight = 20% (logic and professionalism)
- Nick Nurse coaching style = 10% (loved by players, not a sociopath)
- Grinding veterans = 10% (Lowry, Ibaka, and Gasol knew this could be their last shot)
- Humble younger players = 10% (VanVleet and Pascal doing anything to win games)
- Toronto, the city = 9% (a city thirsty for a title in any sport)
- Drake = 1% (can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think he had a minor impact, definitely got his community pumped and opponents agitated)
I think the above makeup can only happen in places like Toronto when they catch lightning in a bottle (e.g. Kawhi for one year). There is often too much drama and too much ego in places like NYC and LA.
Toronto survived a Magic -> 76ers -> Bucks -> Warriors gantlet, I raise a glass of poutine to their efforts. I also love when worthy veterans get a ring. Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka are lovable players that bring the noise most years.
On to your question if the Final made the NBA more or less of a “make/miss league”, very good question. For readers (Hi Mom!) unfamiliar with this concept we covered this in a past edition.
My answer is Yes, overall. But my answer is also Maybe, in the finals.
A barrier to entry to play in the final rounds of the playoffs for sure exists. In today’s NBA your secondary guys have to hit threes to even think about playing in the conference finals. So I guess that qualifies as it being a “make/miss league” if you can’t get close to a championship by not abiding by that formula. It is similar to having a top 10 quarterback being a requirement to play in the Super Bowl.
But one thing I noticed is that these Finals games weren’t entirely decided by 3 point shots. I know other things happen out there besides players rolling the ball down the court and launching a 25-foot three, but the subtle pieces of the game were major advantages down the stretch. I’m talking 1-on-1 drives, secondary match-ups, zone defenses, and rim protectors. The Raptors outshined the Warriors in the areas that make our dads super happy.
I know that is not a super statistical summary, sorry. What I am trying to say is that it is a make/miss game until it comes down to elite execution at all aspects of the game when the going gets tough, a.k.a. The Finals.
So are you even higher on make/miss?
And my final Raptors question before I unleash you on the Warriors, who won over your heart with their magical run? And did anyone disappoint in your (cook)book?
CP: I’m more Make/Miss than ever, but again, only for guys where an open shot is less probable than a coin flip. Obviously, Steph, Klay, Kevin and Kawhi are excluded from this conversation.
But, Game 6 turned on one thing besides Klay’s knee: Toronto’s secondary guys made more 3s. Siakam was 0-10 from 3 in Games 2-5. He made his first 3 in Game 6. FVV hit 4 threes in the 4th quarter, at one point having twelve to the rest of his team’s 6. Also, Lowry decided he was Steph in the first to keep them in it.
But, every team is a deserving title team, and this Raptors team waxes the 2011 Mavs, mid 2000s Pistons and late 2000s Celts/Lakers so they are an all-time fluke, they just benefitted from all-time luck that a juggernaut was removed from their path.
Back to positive things. I’m really happy for Kyle Lowry. He won a title. That’s really cool. He deserves it and I think is probably the only star point guard who plays anything like PGs who we modeled ourselves after during U-11 AAU games.
Kevin Arnovitz wrote a piece for ESPN about how stats guys love Lowry because he is super efficient, but he’s also literally the point guard my father wished I was. He controls the tempo, takes charges, and makes open shots. He also doesn’t do dumb shit and over passes. He’s annoying as hell, but a great teammate (although he seems to have gotten over DeMar now). So, he really impressed me.
I’m not really disappointed in any Raptor, and it doesn’t seem fair to come at Shaun Livingston. But it is very strange that he went from literally never missing a 12-foot jump shot in his life to a guest host on The Jump in like 3.5 weeks.
I feel like you have some words, thoughts, or perhaps even a haiku or sonnet about Fred VanVleet, so I’m going to leave that for you. But after that, I want to hear what you think about the Warriors — where does this leave them all-time, and where do they go from here?
JD: Yes. If we could all join together in Norse song to honor Fred the VanVleet that would feel right.
VanVleet gave us a Dellavedova performance except he actually altered outcomes rather than just trying real hard. Not sure if people can recall but Fred has always been an impact guy. During the greatest run Wichita State will ever see, Fred made the whole thing go and one could argue Cleanthony Early and Ron Baker wouldn’t have ever made a NBA roster without his facilitation. And I loved the Baker Man.
Also glad you highlighted the right Lowry things. All the man has done is tried to be a great, true point guard since he entered the league. AND THEN HE ROCKED A DAMON STOUDAMIRE AT THE FINALS PARADE.
Warning. You are now entering the Warriors zone:
I need to separate logic from emotions with the Warriors. So let’s go ahead and do the irrational thing and talk about my feeeeellings.
You will always be more 2019 Warriors than I’ll ever be. The Durant era never sat well with me, they were winning without him. And that was justified after how much fun it was to watch a vintage Warriors effort for most of these playoffs. Vintage meaning Steph, Klay, Draymond, and Iggy running around like crazed medieval villagers looking for buckets. Those four deserve a standing ovation like Tiger making his walk up 18 at this year’s Masters. Pure gratitude by us fans, and not exactly sure what the future has in store, but proud to say we witnessed the contribution to the sport.
Cooks. There might not be a better metaphor than the closing of Oracle Arena.
My opinion is the dynasty is over. They lost to a team in search of their first title. Multiple starters are hurt. Iggy isn’t getting younger. And a portion of their five All-Stars are going to get paid by other teams over the next couple of years. The league is readying itself for the transition.
Sticking to my word(s) and still putting them into the top tier, but behind the great Bulls and Celtics teams. My strange mind has this them in the Shaq/Kobe Lakers and semi-Spurs bucket. So in twenty years we will be like “o ya, that was the best team of that decade”.
I wish I had the basketball operations knowledge to know what to do with two Top-10 players with 9+ month injuries. If Klay didn’t get hurt then I’d say let KD walk, and make another run. But does Golden State turn their back on Klay while the horse is down? I don’t know. Phil Knight once said “business is war without bullets” so I hope Klay doesn’t get shorted in any scenario. The front office can’t resign two injured guys for the max, right?
Time to make tough calls. Golden State should let Durant walk, because he already was going to, and take care of their boy Klay. This gives them Draymond freedom after next year so that they can possibly sneak a few more titles in before it’s all said and done.
I’m going to pass to you for more passionate Warriors analysis. Are they done? Are they still riding high? What is the worst thing they can do this offseason?
CP: Draymond Green, basketball genius, said it best, that counting the Dubs out is “not smart”. I think they’re the 4th best team ever after Da Bulls, 80s Celtics and 80s Lakers. I don’t count the 60s Celtics. They won like 11 titles but there were 9 teams in the league. It’s impossible to compare. Also, players smoked during games. Can you imagine Bob Cousy trying to keep up with Curry? Only like 2 guys on that team could play for the Warriors or Raptors (Russell and Havlicek, for the record).
So, I’d run the whole damn thing back. Not to get all rangzzz-culture on you, but you play to win titles and it’s not my money.
Joe Lacob doesn’t seem to care about the tax, and now owns a basketball team based in the zip code with the richest concentration of wealth in the history of the world. If he wanted to sell, he could get $5 billion for the Warriors. Bite the bullet, pay an EXTREME tax bill, and try to win 1-2 more titles.
I think Steph / Draymond pick and rolls get you to 45 wins next year. That is one of the most efficient plays in basketball history. Replace Livingston with Jacob Evans. Pay Kevon Looney. Offer Boogie the biggest raise you can (20% above his salary because they don’t have his Bird rights.)
So next year, make the playoffs, get Klay back, and make your first round opponent shit the bed. You said a team with those 3 guys is still a Finals contender, and they’ll have those 3 guys beginning April 2020.
Then come back the following year with at least 3 more years of top-shelf title contention in a league where only Kawhi and LeBron (whose now old as hell) have proved they can beat you. And then your team is still headlined by Steph, Klay, Draymond and Durant. If you have 4 guys at that level, only what happened this year keeps you from a title. The other reason to max Durant is that you aren’t choosing between Durant and another star. You’re just choosing between him and nothing, because you can’t go over the cap to sign free agents, only your own guys, and they are going to be so far over the cap if they have Steph and Klay on max deals.
For the long-term – I don’t think this is a full Spurs situation, where they can feasibly contend every year for 20 years with the same core. There are too many competent teams now, and everyone is looking in the same places and playing the same way. Hitting on picks at the end of the first round is the only plausible scenario to stockpiling talent. And that is really hard – as evidenced by Patrick McCaw, Jordan Bell and Damion Jones not being very good and Jacob Evans looking not very good thus far.
They can’t go abroad and steal Manu and Parker because no one is looking. They can’t steal Kawhi for a competent point guard. Everyone wants 3-D wings, so you aren’t finding competent “16-game” players on the scrap heap. They can’t teach anyone how to shoot. Side bar — I continue to think coaching and scouting are where the best owners should overpay. There is no cap on coaching salaries. Why not give Chip Engelland (Spurs shooting coach) $10 million a year?
So, my reaction given that environment, and that Lacob has said he’ll do it, is to back up the proverbial Brinks truck and try to keep making deep runs with this core. It has to end sometime, but gobs of money is a good way to keep things alive and functioning well past their prime.
Any final thoughts from you? I’m looking forward to next year already, mainly because you will be unable to avoid my Zion content.
Let’s go.
JD: If you’ll ever read the fine print you’ll find the Zion clause.
So it’s been reported that Durant “is doing a lot of soul-searching right now”, which is often code for having your inner circle breakdown absurd financial figures and scenarios to you before any public statements.
And it’s also been made public that the Warriors front office are going to pitch Durant on signing a long-term deal, with the understanding that if he wanted to leave at any point during his contract the team, they would just be cool with that. Pretty unconventional, but also pretty smart since they are trying to collect as many rings as possible for the next 3-4 year window.
Another major variable here is that the Warriors can offer Durant a contract of around $221 million over the next five years. Teams such as the Nets and Knicks can only offer $164 million over four years. Back of the napkin math is telling me that’s a lot of dinero that Durant can use to buy comic books.
All that being said it’s a crazy scenario with him not being able to touch a live basketball next year. The Warriors have to look in the mirror and say to themselves that they are offering a max contract to a guy who 1) won’t play next year and 2) may not want to play for them the year after that and have no repercussions. What a time to be alive.
Selfishly I want him to never play for the Warriors again. It’s kind of like in pick-up when a team goes on a run and everyone’s like “ok let’s swap these two players just to mix it up.” But we all know what’s happening here.
NBA overlords, I am asking you to mix it up.
...
